US 20 years Bonds continue to be at high rate

On the closing of first week of year 2025,

US long term bonds yield continue to be high at close to 4.85.

This goes a bit different way as FED just made another interest rate cut in Dec.

As this is about long term yield, it's more related to expected inflation in long run, any recession or crisis on the way, and maybe the credit of US government.

Overall, we should still see a lower interest rate for year 2025.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Crazy USD keep going up, What this may seem to mean?

After Dec rate cut, now USD goes up again at start of year 2025

It's going higher.

One key reason I think is that overall the world countries are all cutting rates. As US is cutting rates slower, and especially with the Dec hawkish tone when cut the rate, this pushes USD be stronger.

Another reason maybe, new president is perceived Strong?

I'd say, it's crazy. Imagine the USD/SGD went from 1.43 down to 1.28, and now surge back to 1.36.

Crazy moves for a currency rate.

There are so much market manipulations about it. I don't believe this is how a natural market force would behave for forex. 

Imagine I just hold USD at 1.29, and now is already 5% richer in SGD in just a few months (4?) time.

It's definitely crazy.

More crazy things may happen this year.

Is USD to be stronger? I have no idea. All I can see is that if it moves from 1.3 to 1.4, it's just normal and nothing to be surprised. Same for a move from 1.4 to 1.3. 

If it's all about demand and supply. I think this year the demand for USD would depends. So far US stocks have done so well, and bond rates are at high. These all mean very attractive for money to invest in US. It would need to depend on how much funds want to flow out and invest in other markets; and Fed rate decisions.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Which is more important? Don't lose money, or Aim for big gains

For an ordinary investor, the answer for me is definitely first

Don't lose money first.

There is nothing wrong to aim for big gains, for sure.

So it seems, in order to success, you need both: Sure win + Consistent gains

How to achieve this? This is big million dollar question.

I'd quote legendary Warren Buffett here: Rule No 1: never lose money. Rule No 2: never forget rule No 1.

Is it doable?

When you invest, it sure comes with risk correct? How can it be never lose money.

Actually it's possible.

For example, T-bill.

Well, I know, it's lame right? why not Fixed-D, it's even more safer.

That's why, never forget about this. Over 1 year, do you think it's ended with a gain better? Yes, always.

What's the harm of some fixed income instrument? None.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Back to blog, and New Year 2025 starts

It has been a long while,

Yes, I think I'd come back to write about this journey once a while regularly.

The good news is, I have survived the market, though just doing very average.

Year 2024 has closed, I've closed with 2.9% profit overall.

It's not impressive at all, considering that Fed rate is 4%+, stocks wise STI +16.8%, SP500 a whopping 23.3%.

Crazy markets.

I will not talk much about my own portfolio, or how much values here. Ya, this might be boring.. Anyway, let's see how it goes. Just will be some stuff that I talk to myself.

Well, since 2024 has been a great run for US stocks, I tend to think 2025 year will be limited.

Current instruments that I have: Tbill, US bonds, some ETF

Brokers that I use: IB, Futu Moomoo

That would be all for now. Hope my funds can have a good run for year 2025 though.

 

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.