After Dec rate cut, now USD goes up again at start of year 2025
It's going higher.
One key reason I think is that overall the world countries are all cutting rates. As US is cutting rates slower, and especially with the Dec hawkish tone when cut the rate, this pushes USD be stronger.
Another reason maybe, new president is perceived Strong?
I'd say, it's crazy. Imagine the USD/SGD went from 1.43 down to 1.28, and now surge back to 1.36.
Crazy moves for a currency rate.
There are so much market manipulations about it. I don't believe this is how a natural market force would behave for forex.
Imagine I just hold USD at 1.29, and now is already 5% richer in SGD in just a few months (4?) time.
It's definitely crazy.
More crazy things may happen this year.
Is USD to be stronger? I have no idea. All I can see is that if it moves from 1.3 to 1.4, it's just normal and nothing to be surprised. Same for a move from 1.4 to 1.3.
If it's all about demand and supply. I think this year the demand for USD would depends. So far US stocks have done so well, and bond rates are at high. These all mean very attractive for money to invest in US. It would need to depend on how much funds want to flow out and invest in other markets; and Fed rate decisions.
Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.